Abstract:

Solar radiation forecasting is an important technology that is necessary to increase the performance, management, and control of modern electrical grids. It allows energy regulators to estimate the near-future output power of solar power plants, and can help to reduce the effects of power fluctuations on the electricity grid, thus increasing the overall efficiency and power quality of those plants [1]. However, the variable nature of solar irradiance poses a challenge in the exploitation of solar energy. In this context, forecasting techniques are now essential to ensure sustainable, reliable, and cost-effective solar energy production [2]. This paper proposes a hybrid machine learning model to forecast Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) in the short term (1-hour ahead). The experimental assessment of the model is done on the basis of an experimental dataset of 11 years of hourly GHI measurements from the BSRN Tamanrasset station in Algeria. The general framework of the proposed model is explained in Figure 1, and its main steps are summarized as follows:

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