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Failure probability assessment of emergency safety barriers integrating an extension of event tree analysis and Fuzzy type-2 analytic hierarchy process

Abstract:

Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) storage fires and explosions occur due to uncontrolled gas leaks and the gradual breakdown of associated safety barriers. By installing an effective safety barrier, these accidents can be greatly reduced. However, this study assesses the probability of failure of emergency safety barriers (ESBs) to help decision makers understand how they can support decisions to reduce the risks associated with LPG storage. In this context, an extension of the event tree analysis is proposed named emergency event tree analysis (EETA). The aim of this paper is to develop an integrated approach that uses interval type-2 fuzzy sets and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method and emergency event tree analysis to handle uncertainty in the failure probability assessment of emergency safety barriers (ESBs). In addition, a case study on the failure probability assessment of the emergency safety barriers of the LPG plant in Algeria based on the proposed methodology is provided and carried out to illustrate its effectiveness and feasibility. The results demonstrated the ability of interval type-2 fuzzy sets and the AHP method to provide highly reliable results and to evaluate the failure probability of emergency safety barriers in emergencies situations. However, the classical event tree analysis (CETA) does not take into account the possibility of assessing the emergency consequences of different accident scenarios. Consequently, it only allows you to estimate the occurrence probability of accident scenarios. The results of this study show that the value of the probability of failure of the emergency safety barriers can be used to estimate the probability of occurrence of emergency consequences under different accident scenarios, improved the reliability and help prioritize emergency improvement measures. The study provides scientific and operational references for analyzing emergency consequences of the various accident scenarios in all fields such as petrochemical, maritime industry, and health occupational.

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